TOW #22- Feel the Math

            As far as the 2016 presidential race goes, many have been surprised with how far the Sanders campaign has come. They expected Hillary Clinton to get an easy democratic nomination with no one else in her way. But even though Sanders gave Clinton a bit of a run for her money, the facts show that Sanders has slim chances of winning the nomination.

            Paul Krugman informs readers in his article, “Feel the Math,” that at this point it’s all about delegate counts, where Clinton has a substantial lead with the voting more than half over. Taking account of what we know about demographic factors, like that Sanders mainly does well in very white states and in caucuses, the Times’s Upshot calculator informs us about the remainder of the race and what to expect. It shows that Sanders would need to win by about a 13 point margin from here on in. Krugman’s statistics go on to say that at this point, “it’s something like a 90 percent probability that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee.” Even though Wisconsin is a demographically favorable state for him to win next week, unless it’s a huge blowout (which the polls aren’t showing), Clinton will still be very much on track for the nomination.

            Wherever we stand with our political opinions, it’s important to keep our eyes open and be more realistic about our choices. The Sanders campaign has shocked many people with how far it has gotten and with how many people have shown support for it, but as time moves closer to November, the end comes along with it.